Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST TEXAS
INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms
are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah,
and the northern Rockies.
...Southern Plains and central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level low migrating eastward across
the Mojave Desert towards the southern Great Basin. A 90-kt 250-mb
sub-tropical jet over Baja and Sonora Mexico will progress eastward
into the southern High Plains by this afternoon. The nose of this
speed max will overspread a moist sector east of a dryline where
severe thunderstorm development is forecast later this
afternoon/evening. Farther north, a modestly deepening lee trough
will focus storm initiation over the central High Plains.
Despite some mid and high-level clouds, model guidance shows strong
heating this afternoon and erosion of appreciable convective
inhibition by mid afternoon. A mid-level disturbance implied in
satellite imagery this morning over central NM will move northeast
into western KS and the TX Panhandle by early evening. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop near the dryline/lee trough.
Forecast hodographs show some elongation across west TX due to the
nose the upper speed max. Have included 15-percent hail
probabilities where supercell development appears greatest [due in
part to more favorable hodographs and within the northern rim of
richer moisture sampled by the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob (17.3 g/kg
mean mixing ratio)]. Large hail (1.5 to 2.5 inches in diameter)
will be possible with the supercells. Severe gusts are forecast to
become more prevalent during the evening as mergers and outflow
consolidate into a few linear clusters. Severe gusts of 60-80 mph
are possible as this activity shifts eastward into the Low Rolling
Plains and southwest OK during the evening.
Through the late evening, isentropic ascent near the terminus of the
nocturnal jet may support elevated, loosely organized convection
across portions of northwest OK and western KS. Isolated hail/wind
may accompany the stronger storms over the central High Plains into
central OK where storm coverage will probably remain isolated.
...Northern Rockies/Montana...
Diurnally-driven orographic ascent within the terrain of northern ID
and southwest MT will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development by late afternoon given weak capping and northward
advection of steep mid-level lapse rates. Residual low-level
moisture across north-central MT (dewpoints in the upper 40s to low
50s) coupled with 30-35 knot southerly mid-level flow will likely
promote intensification and some degree of organization (possibly
into transient supercells and/or organized bands) through the early
evening hours. Sporadic large hail and severe gusts appear possible
with the most intense convection as it spreads north towards the
Canadian border.
...Southern Utah...
A few high-based storms developing within a deeply mixed boundary
layer (inverted-V profile) may yield an isolated risk for severe
gusts (60-70 mph).
..Smith/Kerr.. 05/29/2026
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