Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of sporadic large hail and
scattered severe winds are expected this afternoon and evening
across portions of western Texas. More isolated severe thunderstorms
are likely across parts of the central High Plains, southern Utah,
and the northern Rockies.
...Synopsis...
Late-evening water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low over central
CA with a subtropic jet emanating out of Baja CA into the southern
Rockies. Over the next 24 hours both of these features will migrate
east/northeast into the central and southern High Plains. Despite
some weakening of the upper wave, 25-35 knot mid-level flow will
overspread the central and southern High Plains where low-level
moisture is gradually increasing within a weak east/southeasterly
flow regime. The combination of modest broad-scale ascent and
strengthening deep-layer shear atop a moistening low-level air mass
should support the potential for a few strong to severe
thunderstorms during and after peak heating from southern TX
northward across the southern Plains and into parts of the central
High Plains.
Elsewhere, orographic ascent within the northern Rockies will
support another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms,
including a few severe storms. A migratory upper trough over the
central CONUS will continue to support scattered, but weak,
thunderstorms across the OH Valley and Southeast states this
afternoon.
...Southern Plains and central High Plains...
Thunderstorm development is expected by mid-afternoon across western
TX into eastern CO along a modestly deepening lee surface trough
where ascent should be focused and mixed-layer inhibition minimized.
Slightly stronger synoptic ascent across the southern High Plains
should promote higher thunderstorm coverage across western TX/TX
Panhandle region with more isolated coverage with northward extent.
15% wind probabilities were introduced across portions of western TX
to reflect the potential for higher storm coverage.
Across both the southern and central High Plains warm low-level
conditions/deep boundary-layer mixing combined with weak flow within
the lowest 1-3 km will likely promote outflow dominant storms with
an attendant threat for severe gusts. Stronger mid-level flow across
western TX may support a more prolonged severe threat, and possibly
a few transient supercells capable of large hail and/or organized
bands capable of gusts upwards of 75 mph. Through the late evening,
isentropic ascent near the terminus of the nocturnal jet may support
elevated, loosely organized convection across portions of northwest
OK and western KS.
...Northern Rockies/Montana...
Diurnally-driven orographic ascent within the terrain of northern ID
and southwest MT will likely support isolated thunderstorm
development by late afternoon given weak capping and northward
advection of steep mid-level lapse rates. Residual low-level
moisture across north-central MT (dewpoints in the upper 40s to low
50s) coupled with 30-35 knot southerly mid-level flow will likely
promote intensification and some degree of organization (possibly
into transient supercells and/or organized bands) through the early
evening hours. Sporadic large hail and severe gusts appear possible
with the most intense convection as it spreads north towards the
Canadian border.
...Southern Utah...
5% wind probabilities were introduced across southern to southeast
UT where weak, high-based convection may support a few strong to
severe dry downbursts. Although latest CAM ensemble guidance depicts
scant buoyancy (MUCAPE between 100-250 J/kg) and very transient
convection, a very deep boundary layer (LCL values upwards of 3 km)
featuring 25-35 knot flow will likely promote sporadic strong to
severe wind gusts.
..Moore/Marsh.. 05/29/2026
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