Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 280100Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms will severe wind gusts and hail will be possible this
evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic into central Appalachians.
Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur in central Wisconsin
and in parts of the Northwest.
...Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians...
An upper-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving
southeastward through the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front
is advancing southward across the Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints are in
the upper 60s to lower 70s F. The RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500
J/kg range from eastern Kentucky eastward into southern Virginia and
across much of North Carolina. Within this area, scattered
thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat are ongoing. Forecast
soundings in the Mid-Atlantic early this evening have moderate
deep-layer shear and steep low-level lapse rates. This suggests the
potential for severe wind gusts will continue for a couple more
hours with the more organized clusters.
...Central Wisconsin...
At the surface, a pocket of moisture and instability is located over
central Wisconsin early this evening, where the RAP has MLCAPE in
the 500 to 1500 J/kg range. Forecast soundings near the instability
max have 0-3 km lapse rates near 7.5 C/km and sufficient deep-layer
shear for a marginal severe threat. Isolated severe gusts and hail
will be possible for another hour or so.
...Northwest...
At mid-levels, a low is evident on water vapor imagery over central
California, and flow is from the southeast and east over much of the
northwestern U.S. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of a band of
strong large-scale ascent from far northern California into
south-central Oregon. The environment is characterized by moderate
deep-layer shear and steep lapse rates, suggesting a threat for
isolated severe wind gusts will continue. Additional storms are
ongoing near a pocket of moderate instability in northern Idaho and
western Montana, where a few severe wind gusts will also be
possible.
..Broyles.. 05/28/2026
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