Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Mid-Atlantic states this afternoon into the early evening. Strong
to severe gusts (50-65 mph) capable of wind damage will be the
primary hazard with the stronger thunderstorms.
...Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley...
An upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will move southeast
towards the upper OH Valley/Mid-Atlantic states during the period.
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a lead disturbance over
southern OH moving east across the central Appalachians. In the low
levels, an analyzed frontal zone has been modulated by ongoing
showers/thunderstorms and it will move southeast today. A moist
airmass ahead of the front, featuring dewpoints in the upper 60s to
lower 70s F, will gradually destabilize through early afternoon.
East-southeastward moving clusters are forecast to evolve by later
this afternoon. Scattered strong to severe gusts (50-65 mph)
capable of wind damage will be the primary risk with the stronger
thunderstorms, although marginally severe hail may accompany the
stronger cores this afternoon.
...Southern ID into eastern OR...
A belt of strong easterly mid-level flow will remain over southwest
ID into southeast OR to the north of a stationary, deep-layer
cyclone over the Sierra Nevada. Heating of an adequately moist
boundary layer will steepen low-level lapse rates by early
afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are forecast
to develop this afternoon. Forecast hodographs show 20-45 kt
700-500 mb flow (strongest over southeast OR) and mean storm motions
35-45 kt. These flow fields coupled with evaporatively cooled
downdrafts will likely result in a mix of quickly moving cells and
smaller-scale linear clusters. This activity will potentially be
capable of severe gusts (60-75 mph) before diminishing by mid-late
evening.
...Western Great Lakes...
Northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the western
Great Lakes today, as a shortwave trough moves southeastward across
the region. At the surface, a pocket of maximized low-level
moisture will be located over Wisconsin, where MLCAPE is expected to
peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. An isolated risk for large
hail/damaging gusts are possible with the stronger thunderstorms.
...Southern Texas Panhandle/West Texas/Far Western Oklahoma...
Somewhat displaced from an expansive overnight MCS along the TX
coast, an airmass featuring upper 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints will
destabilize beneath a weak mid- to upper-level trough. Widely
scattered to scattered storms are forecast to develop by late
afternoon and aggregate into small clusters this evening. Isolated
large hail/severe gusts are the primary severe hazards.
..Smith/Weinman.. 05/27/2026
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