Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1116 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST...FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD...AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today for parts
of the central Gulf Coast/Southeast, far west Texas and southern New
Mexico, central Plains into southwest Minnesota, the Minnesota
Arrowhead, and northern Rockies.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
Isolated thunderstorms may develop late this afternoon from NE into
southwest MN/northwest IA along a weak surface trough. Large-scale
ascent will remain negligible due to the close proximity to a
mid-level anticyclone situated over the lower MO Valley. However,
ample instability and adequate deep-layer shear may still yield a
localized risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger
multicells, before this activity weakens by late evening.
...Minnesota Arrowhead...
The glancing influence of an upper trough moving from Manitoba into
northern Ontario should encourage at least isolated thunderstorm
development this afternoon across the MN Arrowhead vicinity. Steep
mid-level lapse rates present on the 12Z INL observed sounding and
daytime heating of a modestly moist low-level airmass will support
moderate to locally strong instability. Sufficient deep-layer shear
for updraft organization will foster an isolated risk for large hail
and damaging winds with the stronger cores.
...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast...
A weak MCV and associated upper trough will move inland over the
central Gulf Coast states today. Modest flow enhancement and minor
low-level hodograph curvature may aid in occasional strong/gusty
winds and perhaps a brief tornado with convection spreading
northward this afternoon. But, poor lapse rates aloft noted on 12Z
LIX/JAN/BMX/FFC observed soundings will likely temper the
development of more robust instability, and should limit the overall
severe risk.
...Northern Rockies...
An upper trough/low will overspread the Pacific Northwest and
northern Rockies as it digs southeastward through tonight. While
low-level moisture will remain limited, daytime heating will foster
weak buoyancy and the development of high-based convection across
the northern Rockies this afternoon. Steepened low/mid-level lapse
rates may support occasionally strong to severe downdraft winds with
this activity.
...Southern New Mexico/Far West Texas...
An upper trough over AZ late this morning will move slowly
north-northeastward across the Southwest through the period.
Thunderstorms that develop this afternoon across northern Mexico and
southwest NM will encounter a gradually destabilizing airmass
downstream into far west TX. Isolated strong to severe gusts may
occur as low-level lapse rates become steepened.
...Central Texas...
A weak MCV noted in visible satellite imagery late this morning is
slowly meandering across central TX. While additional convection
with locally gusty winds may develop this afternoon in its
proximity, weak shear should limit the threat for organized severe
thunderstorms.
..Gleason/Lyons.. 05/25/2026
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