Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026
Valid 251300Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST...PORTIONS OF FAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO...NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...AND THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible today
for parts of the central Gulf Coast, portions of Far West Texas and
southern New Mexico, Nebraska into southwest Minnesota, and the
northern Rockies.
...Central Gulf Coast...
A northward-moving MCV over southern MS to the east of an upper
trough will aid in the minor flow enhancement across this region
today. A few stronger thunderstorms may yield a localized wind
damage risk. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out given the moist
low levels co-located with small but favorably curved hodographs.
See MCD #852 for short-term details.
...Northern Rockies...
An upper trough immediately west of the Pacific Northwest this
morning will gradually approach the northern Rockies as it digs
southeastward into OR and northern CA through tonight. Diurnal
heating will foster weak buoyancy and the development of
quick-moving thunderstorms later today. Steepened low to mid-level
lapse rates may support a couple of more vigorous evaporatively
cooled downdrafts capable of localized severe gusts.
...Minnesota Arrowhead...
Glancing influence of a mid-level shortwave trough over ON will
overspread the MN Arrowhead later this afternoon. Steepened lapse
rates and adequate cloud-bearing shear may result in a couple of
stronger thunderstorms capable of a localized wind/hail risk.
...Central Great Plains and adjacent Middle Missouri Valley...
Model guidance continue to indicate scattered thunderstorms
developing late today into this evening from NE into southwestern
MN/northwest IA. Forcing for ascent will likely remain weak to
negligible due in part to close proximity to a mid-level anticyclone
situated over the lower MO Valley. However, ample instability could
yield an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts with the stronger
multicells prior to this activity diminishing by late evening.
...Parts of Far West Texas into southern New Mexico...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over AZ with
a left-exit region of an upper jet situated over the border region
of southeast AZ eastward into Far West TX. Diurnal destabilization
and inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will potentially support
localized severe gusts with the stronger downdrafts later this
afternoon into the early evening.
..Smith/Weinman.. 05/25/2026
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