Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the central Great Plains
and Southeast today into tonight, accompanied by at least some risk
for severe weather.
...Discussion...
Mid/upper flow is undergoing gradual amplification across the
northern mid-latitude Pacific. It appears that this will continue
through this period, with a fairly significant mid-level trough and
associated cyclone approaching the British Columbia and Pacific
Northwest coast by late tonight. Downstream, mid-level heights will
tend to rise across the northern Rockies and much of the Missouri
Valley through Upper Midwest, with troughing farther east generally
receding into the eastern Canadian provinces and adjacent portions
of the Northeast.
In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, a notable mid-level
high is forecast to be maintained and remain centered to the
west-southwest of Bermuda. Upstream, it appears that weak upper
troughing will linger across eastern Texas through the western Gulf
Basin, with perhaps an associated mid-level cyclonic circulation
centered across the upper Texas coastal plain, as the leading edge
of broad weak troughing emerging from the subtropical eastern
Pacific progresses through the Southwest.
As the stronger mid-latitude westerlies become increasingly confined
to areas near and north of the western and central Canadian/U.S.
border area, and the lower Great Lakes/Northeast, seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content will generally remain confined to
the Gulf Coast states and southern Atlantic Seaboard. However,
modest low-level moisture return appears probable along and east of
weak lee surface troughing across the central Great Plains.
...Central Great Plains...
Substantive spread remains evident within latest model output,
including convection allowing guidance, concerning developments
which will influence convective potential this afternoon into
tonight. The risk for severe weather, in general, still seems
likely to be limited by weak forcing for ascent, seasonably modest
low-level moisture return, and modest to weak late afternoon into
early evening deep-layer mean wind fields.
However, due to veering of wind fields with height beneath modest
west to northwesterly mid/upper flow, vertical shear along and east
of the lee surface trough may become at least marginally sufficient
for organized convection, including supercells. And any
thunderstorm development persisting into mid/late evening may be
augmented by a nocturnally strengthening southerly low-level jet
(including 30-40 kt around 850 mb).
In the presence of steep lapse rates, thermodynamic profiles
probably will become supportive of storms capable of producing large
hail during peak late afternoon instability into early evening,
particularly where it appears shear may be strongest across parts of
the middle Missouri Valley vicinity. Otherwise, widely scattered to
scattered storms may pose a risk for strong to locally severe wind
gusts into mid to late evening, before instability wanes and
convection weakens.
...Southeast...
Severe weather potential across the Gulf Coast states into Southeast
today remains uncertain, with little clear signal evident in latest
model output. However, a notable cluster of storms, which has
weakened since becoming better organized offshore of the Louisiana
coast earlier this evening, has generated a meso-beta scale
lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity center. It appears that
this may migrate inland across the western Florida Panhandle
vicinity near or shortly after daybreak, before continuing
northeastward during the day. As it does, based on potential
instability present in latest objective analysis, it could become a
focus for slowly intensifying and organizing thunderstorm
development which could eventually pose increasing potential to
produce damaging wind gusts.
..Kerr/Chalmers.. 05/24/2026
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