Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
One or two evolving clusters of thunderstorms will probably be
accompanied by strong to locally severe wind gusts while spreading
from the Texas Panhandle vicinity through western North Texas this
evening into the overnight hours.
...01z Update...
...Southern Great Plains...
Considerable thunderstorm development is generally slowly spreading
eastward after initiating along the dryline, roughly from near
Clovis, NM into the Midland vicinity. However, at least somewhat
more prominent convective development continues to evolve farther to
the north, after initiating off the higher terrain to the east of
Raton and portions of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. This is
appearing to be aided by stronger, albeit still modest,
northwesterly shear near the southern fringe of the westerlies,
within otherwise quite weak westerly ambient deep-layer mean flow
around or less than 10 kt, which prevails across much of the
southern Great Plains.
CAPE is somewhat modest as well, generally on the order of 1000-1500
J/kg across the high plains, but the boundary-layer has become
deeply mixed, with surface temperature-dew point spreads around or
in excess of 30F. In the presence of the more favorable shear, the
northern cluster has already generated a notable southeastward
surging cold pool accompanied by strong to locally severe wind
gusts. It appears that this will continue southeastward across much
of the southern Texas Panhandle during the next few hours. More
uncertainty exists later as it begins to interact with the
convection spreading off the dryline, but at least some convection
allowing guidance suggests that an outflow boundary intersection
could become a focus for continuing thunderstorm development with
strong to severe gusts into portions of western North Texas late
this evening or overnight.
...Southeastern Louisiana coast...
Low severe wind probabilities are being maintained tonight, as an
outflow boundary remains a focus for thunderstorm development mostly
offshore into the vicinity of southeastern coastal areas. Aided by
inflow of high moisture content air supportive of moderately large
CAPE, ongoing activity could still organize and intensify in the
presence of modest shear and southwesterly ambient deep-layer mean
flow up to around 20 kt.
..Kerr.. 05/24/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TShXpS
