Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe gusts and a few brief
tornadoes are possible this evening in parts of the southern High
Plains. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible in the
Ark-La-Tex/lower Mississippi Valley
...Southern High Plains...
On water vapor imagery, a mid-level shortwave trough is evident over
the southern High Plains. At the surface, a dryline is located
across west Texas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints are
in the 60s F and the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range.
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of
moderate instability from near Amarillo south-southeastward into the
low Rolling Plains. Ahead of the storms, forecast soundings in
northwest Texas have 35 to 40 knots of deep-layer shear with 700-500
mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This will support a potential for
isolated supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2
inches in diameter will be possible. In addition, the stronger
storms could be associated with a brief tornado threat. Severe wind
gusts will also be possible, and this threat could increase as the
storms continue to become more linear later this evening...see MCD
830.
Further south across the remainder of west Texas, storms will be
more widely spaced. Moderate instability and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support a potential for isolated supercells with
hail...see MCD 831.
...Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
The latest RAP has an axis of moderate to strong instability
analyzed from northeast Texas eastward across northern Louisiana,
where MLCAPE is in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Along this corridor,
low-level lapse rates are steep. This thermodynamic environment will
support multicells with an isolated potential for severe wind gusts
early this evening.
..Broyles.. 05/23/2026
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