Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible late
this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern High
Plains. A few brief tornadoes are also possible across the Mid
South.
...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk across southwest Kansas based on the current location of the
surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorms will increase across the
southern High Plains late this afternoon into this evening, posing a
risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail.
Across the TN Valley vicinity, sporadic rotating storms may persist
another couple of hours and a brief tornado is possible. However,
the 30-40 kt low-level jet will continue to shift northward with
time and away from the axis of stronger instability. Otherwise,
sporadic gusty winds are possible through evening. For more short
term details, reference MCDs 825 and 826.
..Leitman.. 05/22/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026/
...TX/OK...
A weak upper trough is moving across CO today, with the tail end of
large scale forcing spreading across the TX Panhandle. At the
surface, southeasterly winds will maintain a moist air mass into the
region, where a dryline will become the focus for afternoon
thunderstorm development. Weak mid-level winds of 20-30 knots
suggest that storms will be a mix of multicell and supercell
structures capable of large hail and damaging winds. Merging
outflows are expected as activity spreads eastward into western OK
and eventually north TX tonight, with a continued risk of locally
damaging winds.
...Northeast NE/KS/Northwest OK...
A cold front is sagging southeastward into KS/NE, where a moist and
moderately unstable air mass will be present this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the front, with
a low-end risk of hail in the stronger cells.
...TN/MS/AL/GA...
A broad area of moderately strong southerly low-level winds are
present today over parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, along with
a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the 70s. Forecast soundings
show rather weak CAPE, but sufficient low-level shear for some
concern for tornadoes today. There have been occasional
mesocyclones in the thunderstorms in this region, and that will
likely continue through the afternoon as the low-level jet shifts
northward into northern AL/middle TN. Overall confidence in the
tornado threat suggests the threat remains Marginal, but a tactical
upgrade to portions of the area remains possible this afternoon.
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