Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 141630Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri southwest into west Texas, mainly late this
afternoon and evening.
...Central Plains including Kansas...
An upper trough over the Canadian Prairies and northern Plains will
glancingly influence the region later today, along with an embedded
disturbance or two emerging from the central Rockies early today.
Surface cyclogenesis will occur across Kansas, while a front spreads
east-southeastward across the central High Plains, and low-level
moisture steadily increases ahead of a dryline.
Initiation/sustenance of deep convection is mostly likely to
initially occur late this afternoon through around sunset across
west-central into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the surface triple
point, and to a lesser extent, along the southwestward-extending
dryline. Beneath a stout elevated mixed layer, moderate buoyancy
with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected across central Kansas, which will
be coincident with a belt of 35-40 kt mid-level winds/effective
shear. Where storms do develop, forecast parameters will be quite
favorable for supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds
across much of central toward eastern Kansas. Other higher-based
severe storms are possible south-southwestward along the dryline.
...Southern High Plains including OK/TX Panhandles and West TX...
Widely scattered high-based storms should develop in vicinity of the
dryline late this afternoon/early evening. Somewhat higher
probabilities/storm coverage should exist across the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandles and Texas South Plains. Various forecast soundings
regionally near the dryline reflect a hot and very deeply mixed
peak-heating boundary layer, to upwards of 4-4.5km AGL/500mb, with
residual CAPE and moderately strong westerlies atop the boundary
layer. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts will be possible
where storms develop in this hot/steep lapse rate environment, with
a diminishing storm intensity through the post-sunset evening hours
as the boundary layer cools.
..Guyer/Chalmers.. 05/14/2026
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