Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with hail and severe wind gusts are possible from
Kansas/Missouri into west Texas.
...KS...
An upper ridge is centered over the central/southern Plains this
morning, but will break down through the forecast period as a series
of weak shortwave troughs emanate from the Rockies across the
central Plains. Meanwhile, strong southerly low-level winds will
develop across TX/OK/KS, aiding in northward return of moisture and
considerable destabilization. The western periphery of the
returning moisture will be noted by a diffuse dryline from western
KS into western OK, where temperatures will climb into the mid/upper
90s today.
By late afternoon, forecast parameters will be quite favorable for
supercells capable of large hail and damaging winds across much of
central KS. However, weak large scale forcing and a formidable cap
to the east of the dryline significantly limits the confidence in
thunderstorm development/maintenance. Any storm that forms will
pose a severe risk, but coverage may be very isolated. Have shrunk
the risk areas, but will maintain the ongoing SLGT for now.
...West TX/OK...
The aforementioned dryline will extend southward across western OK
into west TX. Hot and dry conditions will develop to the west of
the dryline, where model consensus suggesting scattered high-based
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Forecast soundings
show near dry-adiabatic low and mid level lapse rates, and
sufficient CAPE for a risk of dry microbursts or occasional
multicell clusters capable of damaging winds. This activity is
likely to struggle as it spreads east of the dryline this evening
due to a strong capping inversion.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/14/2026
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