Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026
Valid 111300Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the
Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.
...Carolinas...
A large upper trough is present today over the eastern states, with
a weak cold front sagging southward across the Carolinas. Ample
low-level moisture is present to the south of the front from central
SC into southeast NC, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Pockets of
daytime heating will destabilize this region, with the potential for
isolated thunderstorm development by early afternoon. Low-level
winds are veered and relatively weak, limiting frontal convergence
and shear. A few strong storms may occur with locally gusty winds
and hail. But the overall threat appears marginal.
...Eastern FL...
Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula with
temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly
flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer
vertical shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing
gusty/damaging winds and hail.
...Coastal LA/MS/AL...
A convectively-aided shortwave trough over east TX will continue to
track eastward across the central Gulf Coast region today. The
combination of daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s
will yield moderate CAPE values, leading to relatively widespread
afternoon thunderstorms from southeast LA into southern MS/AL.
Low-level winds are weak and lapse rates are rather weak.
Nevertheless, cooler temperatures aloft and degree of instability
will support a risk of occasionally intense cells capable of
damaging winds and hail.
..Hart/Wendt.. 05/11/2026
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