Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sat Apr 04 2026
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST LOWER
MICHIGAN...MUCH OF OHIO...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND
NEW YORK....
...SUMMARY...
Strong-to-severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas
northeastward toward the Lower Great Lakes. Sporadic damaging winds
will be the most likely severe hazard throughout this corridor, with
the greatest likelihood across the Lower Great Lakes.
... Synopsis ...
A midlevel trough is forecast to move from the northern Plains into
Ontario on Saturday As this happens, a surface low should lift
northward from northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin into Ontario as
well and a surface cold front will accelerate eastward across the
Great Lakes and be approaching the East Coast by Sunday morning. To
the southwest, the cold front will not progress as quickly, but
should advance south and east through the day.
... Southeast Lower Michigan, Ohio, Western Pennsylvania, and
western New York ...
As the surface low lifts northward into Canada on Saturday, showers
and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing along and ahead of the
trailing composite cold front/convective outflow. At the same time,
a surface warm front will lift slowly northward across Lower
Michigan. To the south of this front, and ahead of the cold
front/outflow, a moist airmass, characterized by low-to-mid 60Fs
dewpoints should be in place. Despite the strongest large-scale
ascent being displaced to the north and west of the warm sector and
weak midlevel lapse rates atop the warm sector, pockets of
insolation should be sufficient to destabilize the environment
enough to support some convective redevelopment along and ahead of
the composite outflow/cold front. Modest instability will combine
with seasonably strong low-level wind fields to support a convective
wind threat and an isolated tornado threat along the leading edge of
any sustained linear segments.
... Tennessee Valley southwest to eastern Texas ...
Widespread thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing across the
western portions of this area at the start of the forecast period.
These thunderstorms will likely be driven by convergence along the
east/southeast moving composite cold front/convective outflow
boundary, with the exact western edge of any severe threat
demarcated by where this boundary is located at the start of the
forecast period. Seasonably high precipitable water values should
support some threat for strong wind gusts in the most intense
thunderstorm cores. These thunderstorms are expected to continue
through the day, despite weakening large-scale ascent and vertical
wind shear as the midlevel low pulls farther away. Given the
seasonably high precipitable water values, modest insolation should
support MUCAPE values between 500 and 1000 J/kg (perhaps as high as
1500 J/kg) across portions of Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi.
This may support a re-intensification of ongoing convection which
would be capable of sporadic damaging downbursts
..Marsh/Chalmers.. 04/04/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TRsYql
