Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Fri Apr 03 2026
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST IOWA AND EAST INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms continue to evolve into an extensive line this evening
from Iowa to Oklahoma and northwest Texas. Damaging winds, hail, and
a couple of tornadoes remain possible through the overnight.
... 01Z Update ...
Thunderstorms continue to develop along and ahead of an advancing
cold front this evening. These storms should continue to increase in
number, growing upscale into an extensive linear MCS from Northwest
Texas northeastward into southern Iowa. Despite nocturnal
stabilization of the boundary layer, forcing along the cold front,
MUCAPE between 1000-2000 J/kg, and sufficient vertical shear should
support a continued hail and wind threat into the overnight hours,
especially across the southern portion of this area where updrafts
appear to be more robust than areas farther north. Given the moist
low-levels and a modest uptick in the low-level jet, a couple of
tornadoes may still occur as well.
Additional thunderstorms have developed eastward along the warm
front draped across southern Iowa east across Illinois, Indiana,
Ohio, and Pennsylvania. MUCAPE and vertical shear decrease with
eastward extent along the warm front, organized thunderstorms within
the frontal zone should support an localized hail and wind threat
for a few more hours. A tornado or two could also be realized with
any discrete/semi-discrete cell that can increase its resonance time
in the frontal zone, especially across central Illinois where better
instability and vertical shear exist.
..Marsh.. 04/04/2026
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