Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...ARK-LA-TEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the Southern
Plains into the Ark-La-Tex and Lower Mississippi Valley. Large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong
wind gusts may also occur in parts of the lower Ohio Valley and
southern Great Lakes.
...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex/Lower Mississippi Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward into the mid
Mississippi Valley today, as cyclonic west to southwesterly flow
remains over much of the south-central U.S. At the surface, an
outflow boundary will advance southward into the Ark-La-Tex and
lower Mississippi Valley this morning. Thunderstorms will be ongoing
along the boundary at the start of the period. These storms will
move southward across Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, a wind-damage threat is
expected along the more organized parts of this line. A couple of
tornadoes will also be possible with rotating elements embedded in
the line.
Further west into the southern Plains, an axis of moderate
instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from east Texas into
far southern Oklahoma. Additional storms are expected to initiate
during the mid afternoon along an east-to-west axis of low-level
convergence in southeast Oklahoma. These storms are expected to move
southward into northeast Texas and northwestern Louisiana during the
late afternoon and early evening. Forecast soundings near the Red
River in far southeast Oklahoma late this afternoon have MLCAPE near
3500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 30 to 35 knot range, and 700-500 mb
lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will support supercells with isolated
large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be
possible. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is forecast to
reach near 225 m2/s2, which will support a tornado threat with
supercells. If the storms can transition into a short intense line
segment, then a localized swath of wind damage may also occur.
...Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...
A mid-level shortwave trough, and an associated cold front will move
northeastward into the Great Lakes region today. Ahead of the front,
a moist airmass will be in place from the Lower Ohio Valley
northward into lower Michigan. As surface temperatures warm during
the day, surface dewpoints in the lower 60s F will contribute to
weak destabilization. This, combined with increasing low-level
convergence will support thunderstorm development ahead of the
front. These storms will move eastward across the southern Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley during the afternoon. Forecast soundings ahead
of the storms have very steep low-level lapse rates approaching 8
C/km, which could support an isolated wind-damage threat.
..Broyles/Moore.. 04/24/2026
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