Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from parts
of the southern and central Plains north-northeastward into the
lower Missouri and upper Mississippi Valleys. Tornadoes, large hail
and severe wind gusts are expected.
...Southern and Central Plains...
Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level trough over the
Great Plains, with an associated mid-level jet streak moving through
the base of the trough into the southern Plains. At the surface, a
cold front is advancing southeastward across far southeast Nebraska,
east-central Kansas and far northern Oklahoma. Ahead of the front,
multiple line segments are ongoing. These broken lines are embedded
with discrete to semi-discrete supercells. The storms are located
along an axis of moderate to strong instability, with the RAP
showing MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg range. Over the top of this
moist and unstable airmass, flow is westerly around 50 knots. This
is creating moderate to strong deep-layer shear which will continue
to support supercells this evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates
approaching 8 C/km will be favorable for large hail. In addition,
the western edge of a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will remain in
place over eastern Kansas. WSR-88D VWPs that are sampling the
low-level jet have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 400 to 450
m2/s2 range, which will support a continued tornado threat. In
addition, a threat for wind damage will also continue through the
mid to late evening...see MCD 510.
...Lower Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley...
Southwesterly mid-level flow is in place over much of the
north-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front is located from
central Minnesota south-southwestward into the mid Missouri Valley.
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing ahead of the
front from far southeastern Minnesota into central Iowa and far
northwestern Missouri. Moderate instability is analyzed ahead of the
line, with the RAP showing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range.
The thermodynamic environment will continue to be favorable for
isolated large hail. In addition, a 40 to 50 knot jet is analyzed
over east-central Iowa. As the low-level jet strengthens, tornadoes
will be possible with rotating cells embedded in the line. As the
line continues to move eastward through the mid to late evening,
wind damage will be possible with embedded supercells and bowing
line segments.
..Broyles.. 04/24/2026
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