Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026
Valid 170100Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...PARTS OF
THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO MID SOUTH...AND THE PECOS VALLEY/RIO GRANDE
VALLEY VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered areas of scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development are expected to generally wane through mid to late
evening.
...01Z Update...
...Parts of Upstate New York into western New England...
Forcing for ascent accompanying a weak frontal wave is maintaining
an area of scattered stronger storms now overspreading areas to the
northwest of Albany NY, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear.
Instability sampled in the evening sounding from Albany is rather
weak, but profiles might still be supportive of at least some risk
for localized severe wind and hail into mid/late evening as forcing
overspreads parts of southern Vermont, New Hampshire and adjacent
Maine.
...Ozark Plateau into Mid South...
The primary east-southeastward propagating organized storm cluster
appears to be in the process of weakening, as southeasterly near
surface updraft inflow across middle Tennessee becomes less
unstable. However, renewed thunderstorm development persists along
and to the cool side of the trailing convective outflow across the
Missouri Bootheel vicinity, with additional attempts along a diffuse
zone of differential surface heating extending westward across
northern Arkansas. This is occurring beneath warming and more
strongly capping lower/mid-tropospheric air, but given inflow of
potentially sizable CAPE, in the presence of moderate westerly
shear, there remains at least some risk for supercell development
capable of producing large hail this evening.
...West Texas...
Potential for sustained severe thunderstorm development appears low
along the retreating dryline across parts of northwest Texas into
the South Plains overnight.
..Kerr.. 04/17/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TS4gPw
