Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...NORTHERN NV INTO SOUTHEAST
OR/SOUTHWEST ID...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL CA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be
possible this afternoon and evening from parts of the south-central
Plains into the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also
occur from northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest
Idaho, and also across parts of central California.
...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes
region toward New England through the period. Upstream, a mid/upper
low initially offshore of California will move inland toward the
Great Basin as a shortwave trough, as another mid/upper
shortwave/low approaches the Pacific Coast.
...Parts of the south-central Plains into the Ozarks...
In the wake of morning elevated convection, an outflow-reinforced
cold front is expected to become nearly stationary this afternoon
and early evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates and rather cool
temperatures aloft will support MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg
along/south of the front, with minimal MLCINH by afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon in
the vicinity of the boundary across parts of southern KS/northern OK
into the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front
and within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High
Plains vicinity.
With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow
forecast across the region, storm organization and duration may
generally remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may
briefly develop on an isolated basis near the boundary, where some
enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible. Isolated large
hail appears to be the most likely hazard, though localized
strong/damaging gusts also cannot be ruled out with the strongest
storms.
...Northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID and central/northern
CA...
In response to the approaching mid/upper low and shortwave trough,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon across
parts of central/northern CA into the northern Great Basin and
interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong
diurnal heating will result in steep low/midlevel lapse rates and
MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg, despite limited low-level
moisture.
Midlevel flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase with
time, with the most favorable overlap of shear and instability
currently expected from northern NV into southeast OR/southwest ID.
Modestly organized cells/clusters and perhaps a couple of supercells
may develop in this area, with an attendant threat of hail and
localized severe gusts.
A few strong storms may also develop across parts of the Sacramento
and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California. While deep-layer
shear will be somewhat less favorable compared to the northern Great
Basin area, cold temperatures aloft (near/below -20C at 500 mb) may
support potential for marginally severe hail with the strongest
storms. Local terrain influences could also support transient cell
organization/rotation and possibly a brief tornado, though this
potential remains very uncertain at this time.
..Dean/Chalmers.. 04/10/2026
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