Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHWEST MO...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts remain possible this evening across parts of Kansas, southeast
Nebraska, and northwest Missouri.
...Central/southern Plains...
Scattered strong to severe storms have developed this evening from
southwest into north-central KS and far southern NE this evening,
near/south of a southward-moving cold front, and along/east of a
weak dryline. Despite modest low-level moisture (with warm-sector
dewpoints generally in the low 50s F), steep midlevel lapse rates
and relatively cold temperatures aloft are supporting MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg, within a moderately sheared environment.
A few relatively high-based supercells remain possible through the
evening, with an attendant threat of large hail (potentially
golf-ball-sized or larger) and localized severe gusts. A tornado
also cannot be ruled out across north-central/northeast KS, as
low-level moisture/shear gradually improve in conjunction with a
nocturnal low-level jet. Otherwise, some upscale growth remains
possible with time, which could result in at least an isolated
severe-wind threat spreading across parts of northeast KS and
northwest MO later tonight, before the threat diminishes in response
to increasing MLCINH. See MCD 370 and MD 371 for more information
regarding the short-term severe threat in this area.
...Northwest CA/southwest OR vicinity...
A few strong storms remain possible through early evening across
parts of northwest CA and southwest OR, in association with an upper
low off of the northern CA coast. Any remaining severe threat should
tend to diminish with time, as already weak buoyancy further
decreases due to convective overturning and nocturnal stabilization.
...CA Central Valley...
Isolated strong storms have recently developed across parts of the
CA central valley, with a supercell noted northwest of Fresno. While
deep-layer flow is rather weak, MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and modest
veering of the wind profile could support a very isolated threat of
gusty winds and small to marginally severe hail, though coverage and
duration of the threat are expected to remain limited.
..Dean.. 04/10/2026
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