Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and severe wind
gusts are expected late this afternoon and evening across parts of
Kansas, southeast Nebraska, and northwest Missouri. Isolated severe
thunderstorms may also occur across portions of the south-central
High Plains and northern California/southwest Oregon.
...Southern High Plains into the Central Plains and Lower/Mid
Missouri Valley...
Ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms and related cloud cover across
north-central/northeast KS into southeast NE/southwest IA is being
aided by modest low-level warm/moist advection in the vicinity of a
surface front. Current expectations are for this activity to
gradually diminish in coverage as it shifts eastward into the
northwest MO/southern IA. In its wake, daytime heating may be
hampered a bit by residual cloudiness across much of
north-central/northeast KS. Even so, continued northward low-level
moisture advection is anticipated across the southern/central Plains
through the afternoon, with surface dewpoints generally in the upper
40s to low/mid 50s. This, coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates
and cold temperatures aloft, will aid in the development of moderate
instability (MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg) along/south of a front
draped generally west to east across northern KS/MO.
Stronger ascent aloft and enhanced westerly flow at mid/upper levels
will remain mostly displaced to the north of the central Plains
today, as multiple mid-level perturbations rotate through mean
mid/upper-level troughing over central/eastern Canada. Still, most
guidance continues to suggest that minimal MLCIN will exist in the
vicinity of the front in north-central/northeast KS and southeast NE
by 22-23Z as surface temperatures warm into the 70s/low 80s.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across
this area by late afternoon/early evening, with modest
south-southwesterly low-level winds veering to west-northwesterly at
mid/upper levels supporting 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear.
Initial convective development will likely be supercellular and pose
a threat for mainly large hail (isolated 2+ inches in diameter
possible). Fairly large surface temperature-dewpoint spreads with a
well-mixed boundary layer and related high cloud bases render
considerable uncertainty regarding tornado potential. But, some risk
for a tornado or two may focus along/near the front through early
evening as effective SRH gradually increases in tandem with a
strengthening south-southwesterly low-level jet. Otherwise, the risk
for severe/damaging winds may gradually increase through mid evening
as thunderstorms tend to cluster/grow modestly upscale. But, the
severe wind risk will likely become more limited by late evening
with the loss of daytime heating and increasing MLCIN with
southward/eastward extent.
Isolated thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon farther
southwest across the central/southern High Plains along and east of
a sharpening surface dryline/lee trough. Overall convective coverage
remains highly uncertain given nebulous/weak large-scale ascent this
far south. Still, some risk for occasional hail and severe gusts
should exist with any sustained cells or clusters that can develop
and spread east-southeastward through the late afternoon/early
evening.
...Northern California/Southwest Oregon...
As an upper-level low over the eastern Pacific approaches the West
Coast today, large-scale ascent will overspread portions of northern
CA into southern OR with scattered thunderstorm development expected
into afternoon. Sufficient moisture and instability should exist
inland beneath strengthening deep-layer southwesterly winds ahead of
the trough to support semi-organized convection. As low-level lapse
rates gradually steepen and flow aloft increases, this activity may
be capable of producing isolated strong to severe gusts and possibly
some hail.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 04/09/2026
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