Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026
Valid 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
KANSAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts, large hail and a few
tornadoes are likely across the southern and central Plains this
afternoon and evening. Strong to severe storms are also possible
from parts of the Ohio Valley, central Appalachians and
Mid-Atlantic.
...OK/TX...
Water vapor imagery shows a potent shortwave trough moving across
northern AZ. This feature will approach the surface dryline over
west TX late this afternoon and evening, resulting in rapid and
widespread thunderstorm development from the eastern TX Panhandle
into western OK. Activity will build eastward through the evening
with a risk of very large hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes.
...Northern OK/KS/Southwest MO...
Latest surface analysis shows a weak boundary extending from
southwest OK into southeast KS. This boundary will lift/mix
northward today, resulting in rapid moistening/destabilization of
the air mass. Most CAM solutions suggest the potential for the
development of a few evening supercells in vicinity of this
retreating boundary over north-central OK into southeast KS. Very
large hail and a few tornadoes are possible.
...OH Valley into Mid-Atlantic...
A well-defined surface boundary currently extends from southern OH
into southern PA, with widespread clouds to the north and strong
heating to the south. This strengthening baroclinic zone will
provide the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon and
early evening. A cluster of thunderstorms is forecast by several
CAM solutions to form over northeast KY/southern OH and track
eastward through the afternoon, posing a risk of damaging wind
gusts. Other more isolated strong storms are possible from
southeast PA into the warm/moist air mass over parts of MD/VA, with
a similar risk of gusty/damaging winds in the strongest cells.
..Hart/Wendt.. 04/01/2026
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