Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 091630Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM ARKANSAS TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are possible
this afternoon/evening from the Mid-South into northwest Georgia.
...AR to north GA this afternoon/evening...
A weak mid-upper speed max is cresting the larger-scale ridge and
will move from AR to the TN Valley this afternoon/evening.
Associated/ongoing convection across AR will likely persist through
the afternoon with some tendency for upscale growth, while spreading
eastward along the northern gradient of boundary-layer dewpoints in
the low-mid 60s. Surface heating in cloud breaks, beneath the
eastern extent of 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rates, will contribute to
moderate buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) along this corridor
with minimal convective inhibition.
Deep-layer vertical shear will be sufficient for a somewhat
organized/bowing storm cluster to evolve from the ongoing AR storms
as they spread across the TN Valley this afternoon, potentially
reaching northwest GA by late evening. The initial storms in the
cluster will pose a threat for large hail (1-2"diameter), with some
increase in the threat for wind damage from northern MS across
northern AL/northwest GA. More discrete storms will be possible
immediately south of the MCS path this afternoon/evening as a
maritime tropical air mass (68-72 F dewpoints) spreads inland. Wind
profiles will support supercells capable of producing large hail
(some could exceed 2 inches in diameter). A modest increase in
low-level shear this afternoon, combined with rich low-level
moisture and the possibility of lingering convective outflow from
the ongoing storms in AR will also support the potential for a
couple of tornadoes.
Isolated thunderstorm development may also occur farther southwest
along the marine warm front into southeast TX, where there is a
conditional threat for large hail.
...Southern AZ this afternoon/evening...
High-based, low-topped convection is expected in the band of ascent
immediately north-northeast of the closed low near northern Baja.
Low-level moisture will be somewhat limited, but steep low-midlevel
lapse rates and substantial south-southeasterly deep-layer shear
will support a few storms/clusters capable of marginally severe hail
and gusts approaching 60 mph.
..Thompson/Chalmers.. 03/09/2026
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