Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
AND MID-SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Arklatex and Mid-South
through the Southeast.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a low-amplitude shortwave
trough moving through the TX Panhandle, embedded within the westerly
flow aloft well downstream from an upper low off the Baja California
Coast. This shortwave trough is forecast to progress eastward
throughout the day, reaching the Mid-South by this evening and the
southern Appalachians by early tomorrow. Enhanced mid-level flow
(i.e. 500 mb winds around 50 kt) will accompany this wave, spreading
eastward in tandem with the progression of the wave.
Recent surface analysis shows a relatively moist airmass already in
place from the southern Plains through much of the Southeast. Mid
60s dewpoints currently extend from the TX Coastal Plain through
east TX and over much of LA. This moist airmass is expected to
advect quickly northward/northeastward throughout the day, largely
in response to strengthening low to mid-level flow downstream of the
increasing westerlies across the Plains. Ascent attendant to the
embedded shortwave coupled with the increasing moisture and buoyancy
will likely result in thunderstorm development from the Arklatex and
Mid-South through much the Southeast.
...Arklatex/Mid-South through the Southeast...
A diffuse stationary front currently extends from east-central OK
into northern AL before shifting more northeastward across eastern
TN. Modest warm-air advection is ongoing throughout the western
portion of this boundary, supported by the increasing low to
mid-level flow just ahead of the shortwave trough mentioned in the
synopsis. Isolated thunderstorms have already developed across
southeast OK, and this is likely the beginning of a thunderstorm
cluster that is expected to develop from the Arklatex into the
Mid-South vicinity this morning. Steep mid-level lapse rates and
moderate vertical shear suggest some hail is possible with this
early activity. Recently issued MCD #0177 provides additional
information for this early morning activity.
Most of the guidance suggests that the resulting thunderstorm
cluster becomes increasingly organized with time, growing upscale
into an MCS before then progressing across northern MS and northern
AL. The preceding airmass should be moderately moist and buoyant,
with dewpoints likely in the mid 60s and MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500
J/kg. Moderate vertical shear should be in place as well, with the
resulting conditions supportive of MCS maintenance through the
afternoon. The same conditions will support robust updrafts capable
of large hail and damaging gusts. Additional, more cellular activity
is possible in the wake of the main MCS, with conditions remaining
favorable for hail. Overall tornado potential appears to be limited
by the likely linear mode as well as the relatively weak low-level
flow. Even so, the modest low-level curvature expected supports a
low-probability tornado threat.
...Southern AZ...
A strong upper low is forecast to advance toward the northern Baja
Peninsula by 10/00z before shifting into northwest Mexico by the end
of the period. Steep lapse rates are forecast across southern AZ
within a favorable zone for large-scale ascent. Thermodynamic
profiles suggest scattered convection will develop and spread north
across this region. Forecast soundings show limited buoyancy,
suggesting this activity should struggle to attain severe levels.
Even so, small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest,
most persistent updrafts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 03/09/2026
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