Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026
Valid 081300Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...AND NORTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern
Texas.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a positively tilted shortwave
trough from southern Quebec southwestward through the Lower MO
Valley. Another shortwave trough extends from far northwestern
Ontario into western Upper MI. Both of these waves are forecast to
remain progressive today, with the lead wave continuing quickly
northeastward and moving off the New England and northern
Mid-Atlantic coasts by this evening.
At the surface, an extensive cold front currently extends from
northern NY southwestward into deep south TX. Several lows exist
along this front, including one over the NY Hudson Valley and
another over central MS. Northern and central portions of this front
are expected to progress eastward/southeastward today, in tandem
with the lead wave as it progresses northeastward.
Showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing in the vicinity of
this front over southwest/south-central LA and the Upper TX Coast,
as well as behind the front across south-central TX. The cold front
will become increasingly diffuse across these areas today, but
thunderstorms could still linger near this boundary into the early
evening. Strong mid to upper level flow suggests a few isolated
strong to severe storms are possible, but overall severe storm
coverage will likely be tempered by poor low-level lapse rates and
weak low to mid-level flow.
...Carolinas into Southeast Virginia...
Recent surface observations place low 60s dewpoints into southeast
VA, but the mid 60s dewpoints are still confined to the Carolina
coast. Additional moistening is anticipated across the region this
morning ahead of the approaching cold front, with the 60s dewpoints
spreading farther north and west. However, the higher dewpoints will
likely only reach slightly farther inland, perhaps reaching the
central Carolinas. Amid this low-level moisture, temperatures are
expected to warm into the upper 70s/low 80s, supporting modest
buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg) during the afternoon.
Potential for greater buoyancy will be mitigated by poor mid-level
lapse rates. Even so, the combination of modest buoyancy, moderate
shear, and ascent along and ahead of the cold front could result in
a few stronger, more organized storms. Given the steep low-level
lapse rates, locally strong outflow is possible within any more
organized and persistent updrafts.
..Mosier/Dean.. 03/08/2026
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