Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening across parts of the Carolinas to
southeast Virginia. A few strong storms may linger over southern
Texas.
...Carolinas into southeast Virginia...
A positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Northeast today,
with tail end sweeping across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. A
surface trough / front will extend roughly from NJ/DelMarva into the
Piedmont, with 60s F dewpoints ahead of the wind shift. Daytime
heating will result in 500-1000 J/kg with generally poor lapse rates
aloft. However, peak heating will steepen low-level lapse rates, and
perhaps support locally strong outflow winds as storms develop on
the boundary after 18Z. Forecast wind profiles suggest mixed-mode
storms with both cells and small bows will be possible, and marginal
hail cannot be ruled out as effective shear tops 35 kt.
...Southern TX...
Shortwave ridging will occur over TX today, which may induce weak
warm advection atop the surface front. Despite northerly winds at
the surface, a band of midlevel moisture may remain aloft,
supporting scattered thunderstorms at various times of the day. The
weak synoptic ascent will probably result in minimal severe (hail)
chances today.
..Jewell/Moore.. 03/08/2026
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