Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts and isolated
large hail are expected today into this evening across parts of the
Great Lakes and Midwest. Isolated severe storms may also occur from
the mid to upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the southern
and central Plains.
...Upper Midwest/Southern Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi
Valley...
An upper-level trough will move eastward into the Great Lakes today,
as a more subtle shortwave trough moves through the Midwest. At the
surface, a low will move into Lower Michigan as a trailing cold
front advances southeastward across the mid to upper Mississippi
Valley. Ahead of the front, a cluster of storms is expected to move
eastward through southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois during the
morning, reaching Lower Michigan by midday. To the south of this
cluster of storms, surface heating with dewpoints of 55 to 60 F will
contribute to a broad area of instability. An outflow boundary
appears likely to move into northern Indiana and northern Ohio
around midday, where scattered convective initiation should take
place in the early afternoon. These storms are forecast to move
eastward into the central Appalachians during the mid to late
afternoon, with additional storms forming further west across
northern Missouri and central Illinois. As cells gradually increase
in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, MCS
development will be possible.
The greatest chance for severe storms appears likely to occur this
afternoon and evening from far northeast Illinois eastward into
western New York and northern Pennsylvania. Along much of this
east-to-west corridor, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000
to 1500 J/kg range by late afternoon. Deep-layer shear will also
increase across the Midwest as a 75 to 90 knot mid-level jet moves
into the Great Lakes. Along the southern periphery of the jet, lift
and shear will be sufficiently strong for organized storms.
Supercells and short multicell line segments, associated with severe
wind gusts and large hail, are expected from mid afternoon into the
evening. Increasing cell coverage could result in a somewhat larger
severe line segment, with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat.
Further west into the lower Missouri Valley, isolated severe storms
are expected to develop in the late afternoon and early evening.
This area will be located further from the mid-level jet, which will
make deep-layer shear and low-level flow a bit weaker. For this
reason, the severe threat is expected to remain more localized.
...Southern and Central Plains...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over the southern
and central Plains today. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward across the Texas Panhandle extending northeastward into
southern and eastern Kansas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints
in the 55 to 60 F range will contribute to the development of
moderate instability by afternoon, with MLCAPE rising into the 1500
to 2000 J/kg range. As low-level convergence increases along and to
the south of the front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will
form. RAP forecast soundings near the instability axis late this
afternoon have large surface temperature-dewpoint depressions with
very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will result in
high-based storms that could be capable of producing isolated severe
wind gusts and hail. The threat should persist into the evening.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/31/2026
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