Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the
U.S. today through tonight.
...Discussion...
Models indicate that blocking within the large-scale pattern will
remain prominent through this period. This includes one notable
mid-level high, which may build further while slowly beginning to
shift inland of the southern California coast, into the Southwest.
As this occurs, large-scale ridging likely will be maintained across
the offshore mid-latitude Pacific through the Rockies, with at least
some expansion eastward across the Great Plains.
It appears that another mid-level high may attempt to form
downstream, within initially amplified large-scale ridging across
the western mid-latitude Atlantic, as a couple of significant short
wave perturbations emerge from lingering larger-scale troughing
initially across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard.
Both of the waves are forecast to rapidly accelerate within strong
southwesterly flow into the northern mid-latitude Atlantic.
As this occurs, a broad, deep and occluding surface cyclone is
forecast to migrate northeast of the eastern Canadian provinces,
with the trailing cold front advancing away from much of the
Atlantic Seaboard, while slowing/stalling across the Bahamas into
Caribbean. The center of cold surface ridging likely will shift from
near the northwestern Gulf coast into the Mid Atlantic vicinity
today through tonight, but models indicate that surface ridging will
be maintained to the southwest, across much of the Great Basin.
In association with this regime, dry and/or stable conditions are
likely to prevail across much of the U.S., with negligible risk for
thunderstorm activity today through tonight.
..Kerr.. 03/17/2026
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