Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026
Valid 162000Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with damaging winds and a few strong
tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening from the Carolinas
into the Mid-Atlantic States.
...20Z Update...
A couple of changes have been made to the outlook for this issuance.
The first change is to remove the Moderate Risk area. Numerous
storms have developed early this afternoon along and near the
instability axis from the eastern Carolinas northward into the
Mid-Atlantic. As a result, instability has remained weaker than was
expected, and severe threat coverage should be a bit less than was
previously forecast. The second change to the outlook is to remove
severe threat probabilities and thunder to the west of the
instability corridor from the Florida Panhandle northward into parts
of the southern and central Appalachians.
..Broyles.. 03/16/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026/
...Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Large-scale outflow from ongoing broken linear bands along with a
separate swath of convection with the low-level warm conveyor have
greatly hampered the amplitude of diurnal destabilization across the
Carolinas to the DE Valley. Primary severe threat should remain with
the pre-frontal linear bands as they spread east-northeast this
afternoon. Some intensification may yet occur across eastern
SC/southern NC within pockets of low 70s surface temperatures. See
MCDs 272-273 for additional storm-term discussion.
Farther north, a pre-frontal low-topped convective line is evolving
across central PA. This should be the primary driver of afternoon
severe potential northeastward into parts of NY as mid 50s to low
60s surface dew points remain prevalent just ahead of this line.
Within a deeply meridional wind profile, damaging winds and embedded
tornadoes will be the main hazards. This activity should remain
spatially confined by a lack of downstream boundary-layer
destabilization over eastern NY into New England.
In the wake of this leading activity, a second round of low-topped
convection will likely reform east of the Blue Ridge into the
Piedmont towards late afternoon/early evening. Prior overturning and
persistent cloud coverage should mitigate appreciable boundary-layer
destabilization. However, robust large-scale ascent and intensifying
lower-level winds will accompany the ejection of a 100+ kt 500-mb
jetlet within the basal shortwave trough. This should yield a
renewed threat for damaging winds accompanying the fast-moving line.
Even with meager buoyancy, another round of sporadic severe gusts
should occur from NC/VA to the Chesapeake Bay/DE Valley vicinity
through this evening.
...GA/FL...
Moderate buoyancy characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg will
persist through the afternoon ahead of southwest/northeast-oriented
convection. With large-scale ascent, outside of low-level
convergence, becoming more focused to the north of this region,
there is uncertainty on how far south an organized line will persist
in the FL Peninsula. Primary severe threat should remain through
mid-afternoon, with a generalized waning in southern extent this
evening.
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