Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026
Valid 100100Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHWEST GEORGIA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from the
lower Mississippi Valley to northwest Georgia.
...01z Update...
Gulf State: Convection that developed over southeast OK/AR earlier
this morning has grown upscale as it spread across the Mid-South
region. This MCS is now spreading across northern AL and appears to
be gradually expanding in areal extent. Earlier supercell structures
have mostly merged within the broader precip shield, and latest MESH
cores support this with hail signatures primarily below severe
levels. As the MCS propagates downstream, locally damaging winds,
and marginal severe hail will be the primary concerns.
Farther south across the lower MS Valley, both JAN and LIX exhibit
strong deep layer shear and modest-strong buoyancy. Scattered robust
convection persists along this corridor, driven in part by weak
low-level warm advection and diurnal heating. For the next few
hours, isolated severe will continue within this environment, but
nocturnal cooling should lead to few storms by mid evening, along
with weaker convection.
Southern AZ: Scattered convection has developed along the northern
periphery of an upper low advancing east across northwest Mexico.
This activity will continue spreading north this evening as
favorable large-scale ascent is noted near the international border.
Nocturnal cooling should lead to weaker updrafts and the overall
risk of damaging winds/large hail should gradually wane with time.
..Darrow.. 03/10/2026
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