Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026
Valid 181630Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe weather is not expected today or tonight.
...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows a very active upper pattern with
numerous shortwave troughs embedded within the broad troughing that
covers the CONUS. Lead shortwave in this series is currently
maturing over the Upper Midwest, with evolution into a cyclone
expected by this evening. A pair of lower amplitude shortwaves exist
farther west, one entering the central Plains and another over the
southern Great Basin. Lastly, a strong shortwave is currently
dropping quickly southward through the northeast Pacific, preceded
by yet another low-amplitude shortwave moving into the central CA
Coast.
All of these waves are displaced either north or west of the better
low-level moisture, which is in place from central TX to the central
Gulf Coast. This displacement will mitigate the overall severe
potential, although thunderstorms are still expected across several
areas, including the central Intermountain West into the central
Rockies ahead of the southern Great Basin shortwave, and along the
West Coast as the northeast Pacific shortwave drops south along the
coast. Highest coverage ahead of the Great Basin wave will likely
occur along the UT/CO this evening. Highest coverage along the West
Coast is anticipated along OR coast where multiple bands should move
through during the period. A secondary max is likely farther south
in the Monterey Bay Vicinity late tonight/early tomorrow morning.
Isolated elevated thunderstorms also remain possible this afternoon
from Lower MI into northeast OH/northwestern PA as the vorticity max
currently over OH moves into the region. Mid-levels will be dry but
lapse rates will be steep, and there could be just enough low-level
moisture to support limited buoyancy and a few thunderstorms as the
vorticity max moves through.
Lastly, strengthening low-level flow within the moistening low-level
airmass could support a few isolated thunderstorms across Middle TN
and adjacent far south-central KY tonight.
..Mosier/Thompson.. 02/18/2026
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