Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible today across much of
northern Florida and into parts of southern Georgia and Alabama.
Wind damage as well as a tornado or two will be possible.
...Synopsis...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move across the Southeast today,
with gradual filling/weakening. Moderate midlevel winds over 60 kt
will spread across AL, GA and northern FL, enhancing deep-layer
shear, while a weak surface low translates east/northeast from AL
into the eastern Carolinas. South of the low, a warm front will
stretch roughly from southern AL into the northeast Gulf Sunday
morning, and will lift north into GA during the day and ahead of an
approaching cold front. The combination of lift along the front,
strong shear profiles and sufficient instability will likely result
in scattered severe storms producing wind and perhaps a few
tornadoes throughout the day.
...Southern AL and GA into the FL Panhandle/northern FL...
A squall line is positioned from southwest MS into southeast LA late
Saturday evening, coincident with the strong midlevel cooling with
the upper wave. This line of storms is likely to progress eastward
to at least the MS/AL border before 12Z, and perhaps even into
central AL and the western FL Panhandle. Southerly surface winds
will help bring mid 60s F dewpoints northward ahead of the line,
though much of the area will maintain relatively marginal moisture
with 50s F dewpoints until the squall line/cold front is near.
Given the favorable synoptic lift and sufficient instability, the
line of storms is likely to persist throughout the day, perhaps with
renewed vigor as it travels across northern FL/southern GA during
the peak heating hours. Even if the moisture is not particularly
robust well inland, steeper boundary layer lapse rates combined with
the linear storm mode and 30-40 kt winds just off the surface will
support damaging gusts. For southern areas, higher dewpoints as well
as 200+ m2/s2 effective SRH will support rotation with the line with
a few QLCS tornadoes possible.
..Jewell/Supinie.. 02/15/2026
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TQypW6
