Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0627 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026
Valid 150100Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR EASTERN
TEXAS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight from
eastern Texas across the Lower Mississippi Valley. A few tornadoes
along with scattered damaging winds will be possible.
...Sabine into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
A fast-moving shortwave trough will move from TX toward the lower MS
Valley through Sunday morning, providing lift and cooling aloft. At
the surface, low pressure will move from the ArkLaTex area into
northern MS, with a cold front trailing southwest from the low.
Ahead of the cold front, the air mass will continue to moisten as a
warm front lifts northward across southern LA and eventually
southern MS and AL late. Behind the warm front, dewpoints will
likely rise into the mid 60s F, aided by veering low-level winds and
40-50 kt at 850 mb.
The combination of increasing low-level shear will likely result in
effective SRH values over 200 m2/s2, perhaps near 300 m2/s2 where
non-zero low-level buoyancy exists. Given the rapid progression of
the upper trough, a squall line is likely to be maintained
overnight, possibly reaching southwest AL by 12Z. Both damaging
winds and a few embedded/QLCS tornadoes will be possible as this
line interacts with the increasingly moist air mass. The main
mitigating factor to overall magnitude of severe will be the
instability values, with MLCAPE averaging 500-750 J/kg overnight.
For more information see mesoscale discussions #0078 and #0079.
..Jewell.. 02/15/2026
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