Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0656 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight.
...Synopsis...
12 UTC surface observations depict a southward advancing cold front
draped from the upper Great Lakes region into the southern Plains.
Aloft, an upper wave is forecast to amplify across the Great Lakes
region in response to the southward push of an arctic air mass
behind the front, while a low-amplitude upper disturbance over
northern Mexico migrates eastward along the Gulf coast. Along the
West Coast, cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper
trough will overspread central CA through tonight.
...Big Bend region of TX and portions of the OH Valley...
The combination of increasing ascent along the front and ahead of
the upper waves should promote increasing showers from the OH Valley
southwestward into the Big Bend region of TX. While buoyancy
profiles will remain fairly modest along and ahead of the frontal
zone due to warm mid-level temperatures (as noted in 12 UTC RAOBs),
temperatures aloft should be sufficiently cold for isolated
thunderstorms. A few recent CAM solutions hint at the potential for
loosely organized convection across portions of eastern KY into WV
where deep-layer shear will be fairly strong (around 40 knots) in
proximity to an intensifying upper jet. However, meager buoyancy
will likely modulate updraft intensities.
...California...
Persistent lightning has been noted in GOES GLM data off the CA
coast under the approaching upper-level trough. The 12 UTC OAK RAOB
also sampled cool mid-level temperatures near -20 C just below 500
mb. With further cooling/moistening aloft expected with the eastward
translation of the upper trough, isolated thunderstorms appear
likely after 00 UTC.
..Moore.. 02/10/2026
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