Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Mon Feb 09 2026
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
Late-evening model guidance continues to suggest a pronounced
short-wave trough will approach the CA coast during the latter half
of the period as a 500mb speed max translates inland across southern
CA. Cooling profiles north of this jet favor steepening lapse rates
and weak destabilization such that isolated thunderstorms are
expected to develop. Forecast soundings suggest deeper convective
updrafts may generate lightning, primarily after 11/00z as weak
destabilization is maximized immediately ahead of the short
wave/cold front.
Downstream, water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
over the southern Baja Peninsula. This feature is beginning to eject
northeast and should advance into the Big Bend/northeast Mexico by
late afternoon. Lapse rates will steepen across far west TX ahead of
this feature, and high-level diffluent flow aloft will prove
favorable for weak convection across this region. Isolated lightning
is expected with some of this activity.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 02/10/2026
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