Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with a threat for isolated severe wind gusts and a
brief tornado will be possible today into tonight from parts of the
southern Plains eastward into the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys.
...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
At the start of the period, a mid-level trough and an associated jet
streak will be located in the southern High Plains. An axis of weak
instability is forecast from northwest Texas northeastward across
Oklahoma. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z along parts of
this corridor, supported by a strong low-level jet. Forecast
soundings near the instability axis this morning have MLCAPE around
750 J/kg with 0-6 km shear in the 55 to 65 knot range. Low to
mid-level lapse rates should be modest remaining in the 6 to 6.5
C/km range. This should be enough for an isolated hail threat with
cells that rotate. In addition, a fast northeastward storm motion
could be enough to produce marginally severe winds at the surface. A
brief tornado will also be possible. The isolated severe threat
could persist into the afternoon as the line moves into the Ozarks.
...Mid Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys...
A mid-level trough, and an associated 55 to 65 knot low-level jet,
will move quickly northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley this
afternoon. Ahead of the trough, strong moisture advection will take
place, with surface dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s and
lower 60s F over much of the mid Mississippi Valley. In response, an
axis of weak instability is forecast to develop by afternoon from
central Arkansas northeastward into south-central Illinois. A line
of strong thunderstorms is expected to develop along the instability
axis in the late afternoon and early evening. This line should move
east-northeastward across the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio
Valleys. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis
at 00Z have MLCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 60 to
70 knot range. This, combined with large-scale ascent ahead of the
trough, will support a marginal severe threat. Any line segment that
can become organized could produce isolated severe wind gusts, and
possibly a brief tornado.
At this point, there is uncertainty as to where the greatest severe
threat will be as the system ejects northeastward across the mid
Mississippi Valley. It is possible that the potential for severe
wind gusts could become maximized near the exit region of the
mid-level jet streak early this evening from east-central Missouri
across central Illinois into western Indiana. For this reason, have
expanded the Marginal Risk area northeastward to account for this
possibility.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 01/08/2026
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