Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CST Wed Jan 07 2026
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
A few marginally severe storms may occur late tonight into Thursday
morning mainly from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma.
...Discussion...
Little change from the previous outlook thinking, as instability and
lift are expected to develop late tonight toward the end of the
period.
A shortwave trough is currently over northern Baja CA, and this will
move quickly eastward tonight, arriving into western TX by Thursday
morning. Persistent southerly low-level flow will eventually bring
60s F dewpoints into northern TX and OK, ahead of a developing cold
front, with ascent increasing early Thursday morning after about
09Z.
Isolated elevated thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front
into part of OK into far southern KS after 09Z, though this will
depend on boundary layer moisture quality. Conditionally, a storm or
two may produce hail as effective shear will be supportive.
..Jewell.. 01/07/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026/
...Southwest TX into Central OK...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
immediately west of Baja California while a progressive flow regime
prevails across the northern half of the Lower 48. The
aforementioned upper disturbance is forecast to quickly move east
across the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts and into west/northwest TX
by early Thursday morning.
A reservoir of partially modified Gulf moisture (60s deg F surface
dewpoints) resides over the coastal plain of TX this morning. As
the upper trough approaches the southern Great Plains tonight,
strengthening low-level flow will advect this moisture northwestward
into parts of northwest TX into central OK during the 08-12 UTC
period. Although the primary cyclone will remain near the
CO-NM-OK-KS-TX border region while deepening considerably, the
attendant warm front will serve as the main low-level feature of
interest. Warm advection/isentropic lift will favor isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing late tonight over
west into northwest TX and eventually into central OK. Model-based
soundings imply elevated parcels and MUCAPE ranging from 500-1000
J/kg amidst strong deep-layer shear. An isolated risk for large
hail may accompany the stronger storms along with the possibility of
localized severe gusts.
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