Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent today through tonight.
...Discussion...
Thermodynamic profiles across the U.S. remain generally stable, or
at least not appreciably conducive to convective development capable
of producing lightning, and models indicate little potential for
change today through tonight. Limited ongoing moisture return, off a
still slowly modifying Gulf boundary-layer, appears likely to become
cut off, as low-level flow takes on an increasing westerly component
to the south and southwest of a modest cyclone forecast to migrate
across the southern Great Lakes region. Increasing large-scale
ascent, associated with secondary cyclogenesis near/offshore of the
northern Mid Atlantic through southern New England coast by late
tonight, may be accompanied by a substantive increase in
thunderstorm development, but mostly ahead of the trailing cold
front, near/east of the Gulf Stream.
Upstream, models indicate that mid/upper flow will undergo
amplification across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into
western North America. It appears that this may include at least
one vigorous short wave impulse digging toward the Pacific
Northwest, accompanied by a potentially notable convective band with
embedded thunderstorm activity, but probably not quite reaching the
coastal waters prior to 12Z Wednesday.
Farther south, within larger-scale troughing digging across the
southern mid- to subtropical latitude eastern Pacific, a relatively
compact cyclonic mid-level circulation may evolve, with an
associated cold core that could support a developing area of
thunderstorm activity. However, before undergoing an
east-northeastward acceleration toward northern Baja and the
Southwestern international border vicinity, it appears that this
will remain offshore through 12Z Wednesday.
..Kerr.. 01/06/2026
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