Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026
Valid 031300Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND FROM NORTHERN/CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHWEST OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast
today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of
northern California and southwest Oregon.
...Southeast/Central Gulf Coast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough progressing
southeastward across northeast TX towards the Lower MS Valley.
Expectation is for this wave to continue southeastward through the
Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast before eventually moving off
the Southeast coast late tonight/early tomorrow. Surface analysis
places a low associated with this wave over east TX, with another
low farther east over central AL. A modest stationary front
currently extends between these lows. This front will transition to
a cold front this morning, progressing southeastward as the surface
lows also move southeastward ahead of the approaching shortwave. Mid
60s dewpoints are in place ahead of this front from the Upper TX
Coast through southern LA into southern MS/AL. Given the presence of
the stationary front, this is likely near the northern extent of
this greater low-level moisture.
Diurnal heating will be limited by cloud cover, but the general
expectation is for modest buoyancy ahead of the approaching cold
front. This buoyancy will support scattered thunderstorm development
along the front as it moves through the region. Low-level flow will
likely veer ahead of the front, limiting low-level curvature. Even
so, strong mid-level westerly/southwesterly flow will extend across
the region, resulting in long hodographs that could support
occasional organized updrafts. Primary severe risk will be isolated
damaging gusts, although a low-probability risk for a brief tornado
exists as well. Some isolated hail could also occur, particularly
with any storms near the surface low over southern AL and the
western FL Panhandle during the late afternoon/early evening when
colder mid-level temperatures are in place.
...Northern/Central California into Southwest Oregon...
Another shortwave trough is forecast to quickly rotate through the
base of the cyclone off the Northwest coast, reaching the northern
CA/southern OR coast this afternoon. Deep and robust southwesterly
flow is currently in place across much of the region. Some weakening
is possible throughout the day, but deep-layer vertical shear should
remain more than sufficient for rotating storms. However, very
limited buoyancy will temper updraft strength and duration, keeping
the overall severe potential low. Greatest chance for damaging gusts
is expected with any deeper convection that develops as the primary
forcing for ascent spreads into the northern CA and southwest OR
coasts this afternoon. Additionally, southerly low-level flow up the
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys, could result in enough
low-level curvature for an isolated low-topped supercell capable of
a brief tornado.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/03/2026
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