Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...AND IN PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast
today. A few marginally severe storms will also be possible from the
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal areas of
northern California and southwest Oregon.
...Southeast...
A mid-level trough and an associated cold front will move across the
southeastern U.S. today. Ahead of these features, a moist airmass
will be in place from the central Gulf Coast eastward to southern
Georgia and northern Florida. Surface dewpoints along this
east-to-west corridor will be in the 60s F. Abundant cloud cover
will hamper destabilization, with only weak instability expected in
most areas. As large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching
trough, scattered thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the
front in the early to mid afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will
be strong enough for an isolated severe threat, relatively weak
instability should keep any threat marginal. In areas that
destabilize the most, a brief tornado or a few severe wind gusts
will be possible.
...California/Southwest Oregon...
At mid-levels, a trough will approach the West Coast today, as an
associated 60 to 80 knot jet streak moves into northern California.
At the surface, a 986 mb low offshore will move toward the Pacific
Northwest. From the coasts of central California to southwest
Oregon, onshore flow will exist with surface dewpoints in the lower
to mid 50s F. The low-level moisture will contribute to weak
instability within an strongly sheared environment. This could be
enough for marginally severe wind gusts and possibly a brief
tornado. Further inland across the Sacramento and northern San
Joaquin Valleys, a marginal tornado threat may also develop,
especially as low-level strengthens during the evening.
..Broyles/Marsh.. 01/03/2026
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