Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0958 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight
across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas.
A large upper trough will deepen over the Rockies and High Plains
this evening, with large-scale forcing for ascent spreading across
much of TX/OK. Forecast soundings in this area show sufficiently
steep mid-level lapse rates and MUCAPE > 0 to support occasional
thunderstorms. This includes parts of western north TX and southern
OK where freezing p-types are anticipated.
Over south TX, the main cold front will be surging southward into a
moist air mass with dewpoints in the 60s. Several model solutions
suggest the development of a few thunderstorms along the front -
mainly after dark. While a brief tornado or strong wind gust cannot
be ruled out, rapid undercutting of the front is expected to limit
the overall severe threat so no probabilities have been added.
..Hart/Grams.. 01/23/2026
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