Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0642 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the country through tonight.
...Synopsis...
Lightning activity off the southeastern FL coast has diminished over
the past several hours amid weakening broad-scale ascent and modest
mid-level height rises. While sporadic weak convection remains
possible off the coast, the overall thunderstorm potential appears
sufficiently limited to warrant removal of thunder probabilities.
Elsewhere across the country, 00z RAOBs sampled mostly dry and
stable conditions that will largely mitigate thunderstorm potential.
A few recent model runs hint that 50-100 MUCAPE may develop across
southern AZ/NM as broad-scale lift increases ahead of the upper wave
currently over southern CA. Forecast equilibrium temperatures near
-20 C could support sporadic lightning flashes during the 08-12 UTC
time frame. However, consensus among guidance is very limited on
this potential, and the recent 00z TUS sounding suggests substantial
moistening within the lowest 300 mb is required before thunderstorms
can be supported.
..Moore.. 01/23/2026
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