Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026
Valid 221300Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida
today, but severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Surface high pressure will remain dominant today across much of the
Plains into the MS/OH Valleys amid persistent upper troughing over
the central/eastern CONUS. As such, overall thunderstorm potential
should remain generally low, with perhaps a couple exceptions.
Isolated thunderstorms appear possible across parts of
coastal/southeast FL along/near a weak inverted surface trough amid
greater low-level moisture and modest buoyancy.
An upper low over the eastern Pacific should develop
south-southeastward through the period off the coast of southern
CA/northern Baja. Cool temperatures aloft may support weak MUCAPE
and very isolated lightning flashes with convection that should
remain mostly offshore this afternoon. Overall coverage of
thunderstorms appears less than 10% across coastal southern CA.
..Gleason/Dean.. 01/22/2026
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