Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026
Valid 212000Z - 221200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms should occur across parts of east/southeast
Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley today and tonight.
...20Z Update...
No changes are needed to the ongoing forecast.
..Wendt.. 01/21/2026
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026/
...ArkLaTex Region...
The persistent upper trough over the eastern states will maintain
fast cyclonic flow aloft over the Gulf coast states today. A
surface cold front will sag southward across parts of TX/AR/LA and
eventually into MS. The air mass ahead of the front is moderately
moist, with MUCAPE of less than 500 J/kg. This will result in
occasional clusters of thunderstorms, but no severe storms are
anticipated.
...South FL...
A subtle southern-stream shortwave trough will move across the Gulf
and approach FL late tonight. This will result in an increase in
the risk of isolated thunderstorms over southeast FL - mainly after
midnight.
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