Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026
Valid 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a pair of shortwave troughs
moving within the broadly anticyclonic flow that covers much of the
CONUS. The easternmost shortwave is currently moving through eastern
OK and is forecast to continue progressing eastward throughout the
day, moving across the Mid-South and TN Valley. The westernmost
shortwave is currently moving into the Four Corners vicinity, with
continued southeastward progress anticipated throughout the day,
taking the wave through southern CO/northern NM, the TX Panhandle,
and OK/north TX. Recent surface analysis places a low over the
central TX/OK border region, with modest low-level moisture return
ongoing across the TX Gulf Coast and Lower MS Valley.
This low is forecast to progress gradually eastward in tandem with
its parent shortwave, ending the period over central AL. Broad
low-level moisture return will persist within the warm sector of
this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from
southern LA into central MS/AL by early tomorrow morning. Warm-air
advection across this warm sector is forecast to result in elevated
instability beginning in the late afternoon and persisting through
the evening and overnight. Elevated thunderstorms are anticipated
near the nose of the low-level jet where the warm-air advection will
be maximized. Moderate mid-level flow will extend across the region
and vertical shear will be strong enough to support storm
organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to limit updraft
depth and persistence, keeping the overall severe potential low.
Some surface-based instability is possible very late in the period
(09Z-12Z Saturday) from southeast LA into the FL Panhandle. Even so,
limited forcing for ascent and weak buoyancy should temper the
overall severe potential here as well with the greater severe risk
occurring later and further downstream on Day 2 (Saturday).
...Northern/Central CA...
A deep cyclone, currently over the western Pacific Ocean, is
forecast to progress northeastward throughout the day as a series of
shortwave troughs rotate through its southern and eastern periphery.
One of these shortwaves is forecast to reach the northern
CA/southern OR coast by late tonight. Strong ascent and cooling
mid-level temperatures associated with this wave will support
showers and embedded thunderstorms across northern and central CA
tonight. The deepest convection is anticipated within a frontal band
forecast to reach the region between 04Z and 06Z. Robust wind fields
will accompany this shortwave as well, but the limited buoyancy
should temper the overall severe potential.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/02/2026
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