Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CST Thu Jan 01 2026
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast.
...Gulf States...
Weak short-wave trough is currently noted over the southern High
Plains region. This feature is forecast to deamplify a bit as it
tracks into the lower MS Valley around 18z. Late in the period, a
stronger feature will dig into the Arklatx by 03/12z, but the lead
short wave is expected to be the primary feature that induces a LLJ
response across MS/AL/GA. Latest model guidance suggests weak
elevated instability will develop across much of the central Gulf
States, and this will prove more than adequate for elevated
convective development along the nose of the LLJ, where warm
advection will be maximized. Late in the period, weak SBCAPE is
expected to develop across southeast LA but the primary forcing
mechanism will be well north of this region and the prospect for
organized severe appears limited.
...CA...
Strong midlevel speed max will translate inland across northern CA
after 03/06z. Profiles will cool as heights fall in response to this
feature, and lower tropospheric lapse rates will steepen. As a
result, forecast soundings exhibit significant moistening that will
lead to weak buoyancy and the possibility for at least isolated
thunderstorms as lifted parcels should be able to attain heights
necessary for lightning discharge. While wind fields will strengthen
markedly, at this time it appears gusty winds would be the greatest
risk with the more organized late-night convection. Severe threat
appears too low to warrant probabilities at this time.
..Darrow/Marsh.. 01/02/2026
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