Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 041630Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.
...Synopsis...
16 UTC surface observations along the Gulf Coast show a stalling
frontal boundary draped from the MS Delta region to just off the TX
Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing along
and north of this boundary as modest isentropic ascent within the
925-850 mb layer continues ahead of a low-amplitude upper wave
currently over the central Plains. The combination of diabatic
cooling and building surface high pressure to the north of the
boundary should keep the frontal boundary, and any surface-based
buoyancy, offshore through much of the forecast period. While
elevated thunderstorms will likely continue across the central Gulf
Coast region through the day and into tonight, buoyancy profiles
will remain too limited to support robust convection. Sporadic
lightning strikes are noted across the Texarkana region, but latest
forecast soundings suggest that EL levels should remain near or
below -20 C, which limits confidence in lightning production beyond
the next couple of hours.
..Moore.. 12/04/2025
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