Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Thu Dec 04 2025
Valid 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not forecast in the U.S. today or tonight.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows a southern-stream shortwave
trough moving through NM, preceded by a extensive fetch of
southwesterly flow aloft from the eastern Pacific across the
southern Plains and Lower/Mid MS Valley. More confluent,
single-stream, moderate to strong mid-level flow exists across the
eastern CONUS. The NM shortwave is forecast to progress
northeastward, loosing amplitude as it moves into the more confluent
flow from the Plains eastward. This shortwave will be displaced well
north of any notable low-level moisture.
Recent surface analysis places a low just off the southeast TX
Coast, with a warm front extending eastward from this low along the
LA coast before pivoting more southeastward into more of central
Gulf. Warm-air advection amid this frontal zone is contributing to a
broad precipitation shield, with a few deeper embedded updrafts
producing lightning, from the Lower MS Valley into southern MS/AL
and the FL Panhandle.
The surface low is forecast to progress eastward along the warm
front throughout the day, with the warm-air advection showers and
thunderstorms progressing eastward as well. The strongest updrafts
are expected to remain within the southern periphery of this
precipitation shield, largely over the coastal portions of LA, MS,
and AL where modest elevated buoyancy is anticipated. Surface-based
buoyancy, supported by mid/upper 60s dewpoints, may develop across
far southeast LA, with an associated threat for a few stronger, more
organized storms. However, localized and brief character of this
threat precludes the need for any severe probabilities. Isolated
thunderstorms could persist into the evening across southern LA as a
cold front moves through, but buoyancy will remain limited with no
severe thunderstorms expected.
..Mosier/Jewell.. 12/04/2025
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