Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may be noted across the lower Rio Grande Valley
very early in the period.
...Lower Rio Grande Valley...
Surface front is surging south across south central TX late this
evening as pressures build over the central/southern Plains. Latest
model guidance suggests the wind shift will reach the international
border around 12z, then quickly advance deep into northeast Mexico.
A narrow band of shallow convection is currently noted along the
front as far west as Wilson county TX. Forecast soundings for deep
South TX at the start of the period suggest both pre frontal and
post frontal parcels will exhibit sufficient buoyancy for the
strongest updrafts to possibly penetrate levels necessary for
lightning discharge. Any post frontal lightning threat should be
over by 15z.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/29/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TQ3Cr9
