Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025
Valid 290100Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible over parts of the
Midwest and Ohio Valley this evening. Severe/damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a tornado are the primary threats.
...01z Update...
Midlevel low is digging southeast across southeast SD early this
evening. This feature is forecast to track across IA then eject into
northern lower MI by the end of the period as an intense 500mb speed
max translates into the OH Valley. In response to this short wave,
surface low will deepen as it lifts north across lower MI overnight.
The primary concern for deep convection, especially this evening,
will be along the cold front as it surges across IN/western KY.
Latest radar data exhibits a narrow, strongly forced line of
convection from near Fort Wayne, IN southwest across southern IL
into extreme northeast AR. This activity has progressed through the
primary corridor of instability, but pre frontal air mass across the
OH Valley remains adequately buoyant for surface-based convection,
at least for the next several hours. Damaging winds should be the
primary risk this evening, though a tornado or two can not be ruled
out.
..Darrow.. 12/29/2025
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